Democrats are reportedly concerned about a bipartisan third-party ticket that could siphon votes away from President Biden in 2024, handing the White House to Donald Trump.
While many on the Republican side worry about a scenario where Florida Governor Ron DeSantis wins the Republican nomination, forcing Trump to run as an Independent or on another party ticket and “sabotaging” the GOP, a new report suggests the concern runs in the other direction as well.
A group called ‘Third Way’ released a report which analyzed the “dangerous illusion of a Presidential Third Party in 2024.”
The group states that a third-party candidate, while their intentions would be admirable, would almost certainly lose and “will most likely benefit the presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump or a Trump acolyte in 2024.”
In fact, they declare it will lead to his victory.
“If a third-party candidate blew past historic precedent and managed to win enough Electoral Votes to keep any candidate from getting to 270, then the outcome would be decided in the House of Representatives, which is controlled by Republicans and where Donald Trump would prevail,” the report says.
.@aliza_astrow reviews the history + data showing third-party candidacies for the WH don’t win. But they can be a spoiler.
The most successful third-party candidacy possible would deny any candidate 270 EVs, throwing the election to House Republicans.https://t.co/9WrDMzvOAA
— Third Way (@ThirdWayTweet) December 14, 2022
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A Third Party in 2024?
The study on a third-party candidate in 2024 seems to be making assumptions leading to their conclusion.
The first assumption is that Trump is definitively the GOP nominee, no guarantee with DeSantis surging in recent polls. The second is that said third-party candidate is not Trump himself.
A Washington Post article last month points to Senator Lindsey Graham, who told Axios a year earlier that the Republican Party has to stick with Trump for a variety of reasons.
“He could make the Republican Party something that nobody else I know can make it. He can make it bigger. He can make it stronger. He can make it more diverse,” Graham said.
Then he dropped this assertion: “And he also could destroy it.”
.@LindseyGrahamSC to @jonathanvswan: “[Trump] could make the Republican Party something that nobody else I know can make it. He can make it bigger. He can make it stronger. He can make it more diverse.”
“And he also could destroy it.” #AxiosOnHBO pic.twitter.com/iXL085S1t4
— Axios (@axios) March 7, 2021
“A third party would be a disaster,” Graham said.
The Post gleefully surmised, “Even getting on the ballot in a handful of states could wreck the GOP’s chances, if Trump’s goal were sabotage.”
So it seems a third-party run could sink Biden. Unless the candidate happens to be Trump, who has the backing of millions of American voters and would almost certainly win some states in a three-way contest, in which case it would aide Biden.
There’s three pretty large scenarios I see coming to play for the 2024 election:
1. Trump wins the primary, gets killed in general. (Most likely atm imo)
2. Trump loses primary, claims it’s rigged, runs third party, we lose even worse
3. He loses the primary, and actually quits
— Subbed (@theodictator) December 5, 2022
Democrats have voiced concern about President Biden running for reelection in 2024.
The President has repeatedly insisted he will run again despite unease over his age – he’d be 86 at the end of a second term – and frequently observed mental lapses.
There has been speculation that Liz Cheney could run third-party in 2024, but her candidacy would go back to the ‘Third Way’ report scenario in which she actually helps the Republican candidate and takes votes away from Biden.
Cheney’s support is almost exclusively among Democrats and low-energy Mitt Romney clones.
Report: Dems Terrified of Third Party Ticket in 2024 – ‘Trump Would Prevail’